There’s no such thing as polishing a crystal ball and gazing into its mesmerizing center to find a path to the future.
Or … is there?
The Mountain West Conference recently worked with Arizona State professor Brian David Johnson to forecast the next steps for the league that includes the University of New Mexico. MWC Commissioner Gloria Nevarez called him a “threatcaster.”
Johnson is an author and futurist at Frost & Sullivan, a company that bills itself as an innovator for growth.
“He worked with us to model all the different futures in and around the college athletic space,” Nevarez said during this week’s MWC football media days in Las Vegas, Nev. “He’s providing us signals and wayfinders so that we have early detection for the more dire outcomes, and the report gives us tools to actively think about and prepare the Mountain West today for some of those outcomes should they come to fruition in the near future.”
She called Johnson’s work with the league a “presidential initiative” to help the Mountain West navigate the ever-changing landscape of major college athletics. With realignment threatening the conference’s future, Nevarez is also trying to negotiate a multimedia rights deal that could reach nine figures as soon as the current TV contract runs out in 2026.
Toss in the influence of the College Football Playoff and the dramatic impact of paying student-athletes, she admitted she went into the process Johnson was offering with an open mind.
The hot topic in recent months is the MWC’s place in future alignments. The crumbling of the Pac-12 has left the possibility of a merger with Oregon State and Washington State into a revamped Pac-12 that might not include every Mountain West school.
There are 12 football programs in the conference, each of whom will play at least one game against the Pac-2 schools this season. Most other sports have 11 members, and it’s the future of that core group that’s on everyone’s mind. UNM appears to be one of the schools that, depending on the day and topic, is either included in a future merger or left out with a handful of others.
Nevarez wouldn’t go into specifics, but she said repeatedly this week significant changes for the MWC and the rest of college sports will happen sooner rather than later.
In recent years, the MWC has been largely immune from massive realignment. There was a time last year where San Diego State announced its intention to leave the league, presumably for the Pac-12 just weeks before Colorado kickstarted the conference’s implosion when it bolted for the Big 12.
After SDSU’s decision to stay in the Mountain West, Nevarez and the member schools agreed to a loyalty pact that essentially said it’s all for one, one for all.
Getting back to Johnson’s report for the MWC, the commissioner said the league at least has a few working ideas on how to sidestep potential landmines.
“This is how we plan to survive and thrive in the myriad of potential outcomes that are coming our way,” Nevarez said. “Our board and our membership are constantly involved in thinking about the Mountain West, how to remain competitive and how to think about the future.”
The expansion of the CFP from four to 12 teams this year opens the door for a MWC team to sneak in there. Preseason prognostications suggest it would take at least an 11- or 12-win season from the league champion to qualify.
The CFP gives automatic playoff bids to the top five conference champions, meaning champions from the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC are locks, with the fifth spot going to an autonomous-five league such as the Mountain West, American or Conference USA.
“We intend to be a top-five FBS conference,” Nevarez said.
